Theory vs. Application

If there was one glaring apparency in the 90-minute slow-motion coronary failure that was Manchester City vs. Arsenal, it was that we're not strong enough in the challenge across the pitch. The common term is "50/50." In theory, it's a situation in which two opposing players have an equal chance of winning the ball. That is only in theory. Because when applied, only one player wins 100% of the ball. And when one player is more battle hardened, committed and physically imposing, 50/50 turns into 100/0.

And that is what this match was... a foregone conclusion.

• You don't have to be the most physical side, otherwise Stoke City would be submersed in silverware. 
• You don't have to be the most trigger-happy side, otherwise Everton would be the 3rd horse in the title race.
• You don't have to be the most efficient side, otherwise Reading wouldn't have been relegated in 2008.
• You don't have to be the smartest side, otherwise £2 million on Michu would be chump change to a particular top-flight club in Wales.

What you do need is a good enough combination of any of those factors paired with pure, unbridled self belief. This season more than ever, Arsenal is deficient in both areas of the pairing.

In our 4-3-3 formation, our midfield takes the pitch at an underwhelming average height/weight of 5'7" 147lbs. In theory, it's ok as long as you're committed, able to find better, more lethal positions and stay a step ahead. We don't consistently do that, especially against top sides where we always appear outclassed.

From an offensive side: Our play through the channels has lacked enough bite to keep teams honest. They press us high with no respect for our ability to react within our realm of continuity, or sit back and watch our slow build-up play stall on poor crosses or the inevitable poor ball after a string of toothless passes.

Defensively

• Per Mertesacker's calmness in possession offers no atonement for his ironic lack of aerial presence (he's 6'6" and somehow appears shorter when he jumps), absence of top-level pace (even for a centre-half) and susceptibility to double-moves.
• Laurent Koscielny's business-end savvy on set-pieces doesn't excuse his errors and disciplinary record.
• Thomas Vermaelen seems to fall victim to the same problems as Koscielny, minus the cards.
• Keiran Gibbs is great defending the ball, but doesn't offer much reassurance off of it and every step looks uncertain when he turns and runs in recovery.
• Bacary Sagna's current run of form is alarming. He publicly remains professional, and his effort is always evident, but with the hole we have dug ourselves, one would like to believe a player of his proven class would be a pivot.

I remember assurances at the beginning of the season from Arsene Wenger that the team was more balanced than ever. In theory, I trusted that this balance would yield a new style of play that didn't rely on the contributions of a superstar to rescue results with individual moments of brilliance - rather, a synergy of productivity that could challenge for the title in a new way that had yet to be seen over this near-decade of rebuilding.

By mid-season, those assurances have been rubbished. Arsene finds himself with more questions about the quality and spirit of the squad he's managed for 6 months than he began with. But most importantly, there has been no realization of any theory other than:

When you lose your best players and don't replace them with equal or better talent, getting results becomes more difficult.

Why Do We Do This?

If I had a $, £, or € for every time I heard Arsène Wenger say something to the effect of "We lacked creativity in attack" following a draw or loss, I'd have enough money to fund Eden Hazard's wages for the length of his contract at Chelsea FC. There is a gap between Arsenal and Manchester United and the gap isn't just league points related. It's in the class of players. Manchester United and Chelsea can hemorrhage goals to top squads because they have world class players pulling goals back regardless of what resistance they encounter. Roberto Mancini has left it on no uncertain terms at Manchester City that he needed to buy better players to be successful. This is no longer the world of clearance aisle buys where you pick up world class athletes who have flown under the radar of narcissistic mis-management in need of a chance and change of scenery. Teams have caught on. Now these players cost... a lot.

It seems Wenger's economic brilliance (and it's nothing short of brilliant) only goes so far in today's footballing world. It's like a weekend marathon of the film "Moneyball," - the amazing story of the innovative use of minimal funds that changed the way we think about how professional baseball teams should be run. But in admiring that beauty and brilliance, it's easy to forget that regardless of how much nectar Billy Beane (the team's General Manager played by Brad Pitt) squeezed out of the sieve, he didn't win the World Series... The Trophy... The Title...  the reason teams take the field in the MLB.

We mustn't forget: after that eye-opening season Billy Beane was offered positions at much wealthier and more prestigious clubs (which he refused). Are the parallels piling up yet? 

Franchises realized that with their resources, buying the best players available for Beane's style of play would best serve them. So teams began to emulate his approach. HEY! They even made a critically acclaimed, big-budget film about it. And this is in a country which has no promotion & relegation system for its club sports. There's a classic press conference sound byte from NFL Coach Herman Edwards that comes to mind where he says "You play... To Win... The Game." 

We find ourselves wanting to feel good about our accomplishments. And there's so much consolation in "valiant efforts" and "moral victories," but ultimately losing is always the constant. The more you obscure the goal of competition with rationale & excuses, the less you truly compete. You can't guarantee success every time and much can be learned from losing - sometimes more than winning, but it never changes the reason you answer the opening whistle.

A successful sports franchise suffers in places other than the players' blood, sweat and tears. The coaching staff suffers sleepless nights, minimal time with family and long office hours spent in preparation. The management staff suffers in finding the right combination of making shareholders & fans happy, developing the brand and (attempts at) balancing the budget. The fans suffer by riding the emotional roller coaster of matches throughout the season - buying tickets & merchandise, traveling and supporting the club. If it were that simple, it would be down to the resources available - an area where general consensus says Arsenal refuse to endure the necessary amount of suffering for the title. I have yet to see a case plead by anybody on the board that argues against that accusation. With the departures of shareholders like David Dein & Lady Bracewell-Smith, and players like Thierry Henry & Robin Van Persie for disagreements with the direction of the club, the evidence is mounting. 

There is risk in all you do, but it is your responsibility to evaluate the situation and put yourself in the best position to succeed. I question what success means to the board at Arsenal F.C., because the target seems to change conveniently when failure summons accountability.

References to the Financial Fair Play restrictions were rubbished by Arsène Wenger himself years ago when he cited the ease with which teams can circumvent these restrictions with cash injections from ownership and convenient sponsorship renegotiation.

On the pitch, the hurt since the departure of Thierry Henry had been offset by incumbent depth and the purchase of stop-gaps (RVP, Fabregas, Walcott, Flamini & Adebayor (hit their strides), Gallas, Toure, Song, Clichy etc.). This is evidenced by the fact that most of these players left for clubs that have finished above Arsenal in the Champions League and EPL. But as you look across the starting XI of this season's matches thusfar, not many new faces inspire such confidence. That's because the cupboard is thin. We'd been running on reserve fuel without replenishing our main supply for so long that we forgot why we call it "reserve" fuel. Frankly speaking, every player on the current roster will need to play much better than what we've come to accept as their class (not form) to challenge for the title. 

For starters, Rosicky & Diaby aren't the Van Persie injury stories of the midfield in terms of class and form. Podolski & Ramsey play the wing without many winger qualities on display (possibly a lack of team continuity to blame), allows opposing right backs the freedom to wander up and down the flanks without much counter-attacking worry. Theo Walcott's pace offers direct punishment for opponents' defensive indiscipline (just ask Pep Guardiola), but he doesn't see much of the pitch with injuries & contract disputes, prefers playing striker, and once he's subbed on teams are already content to sit back and defend their established lead.

Then there's the curious case of our 3 central midfielders. Santi Cazorla is encouraged to link-up with the attacking force in a free David Silva role. Great, but...
 

• Olivier Giroud finds himself tracking back to midfield to see the ball and needs time to find his feet against EPL defenders. 
• Lucas Podolski doesn't seem up for sprinting the full 90 and finds scoring angles difficult to come by.
• Aaron Ramsey often plays with his head down in crucial situations and can't seem to place the final ball.
• Gervinho (injured), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (injured) & Andrei Arshavin require a high volume of touches to be effective. 
• Marouane Chamakh is no longer taken seriously by Wenger.

So there isn't much left for Santi to link up with going forward. It is also becoming tiresome watching him repeatedly get muscled off the ball and gesticulate wildly because the referee won't blow his whistle.

Mikel Arteta puts in a yeoman's effort every match, but he's not a natural defensive pivot. His understanding of the game allows him to anticipate and find proper defensive positions, but he lacks the explosiveness and size to play box-to-box every match and his ability to keep the ball suffers as his legs weaken from these defensive tussles.

Jack Wilshere shows a bit of promise, but we will need more from him quickly and consistently if we are to finish in the top 4.

We have a puncher's chance in every match if we play out of our minds, but this season can very easily offer more of what we've seen, if not worse. I believe in the effort Arsène Wenger and his coaching staff puts in on the training ground. They are fully committed to preparing the team and maximizing its potential, but as it stands we simply don't have the attacking class to challenge for the Premier League Title. But what was the goal again anyway?

A Bumpy Road Ahead

The philosophy behind Wenger's frugal transfer market nature is valid, but it has sadly warped into delusions of grandeur. When Henry left and all the pundits projected a fall from the top 4, I laughed as they talked about our "failure to absorb crucial departures." This is because we still had a strong supporting cast behind the aging talisman. Adebayor was among top goal scorers, Van Persie had goals to offer when healthy, Fabregas was becoming a man, Flamini showed top-class athleticism and grit, Song found his feet anchoring the midfield, Theo's pace was yielding more end-results, etc.

Most importantly, our back 4 was balanced and steady. On top of that, we made some impactful additions along the way. Sagna and Arshavin both made immediate impacts - the latter breaking our standing transfer record. While we weren't winning things, we were certainly in with a chance as a legitimate club among the European Elite Class. There was no cause for panic.

But now let's take a look at what's left from the extensive supporting cast:
- Gallas got old.
- Toure, Flamini, Adebayor & Clichy took off - all alienated by club decisions.
- Vermaelen is injury prone
- Arshavin is a shell of his former self

Now take away Fabregas & Nasri and we're not left with much at all aside from unproven talent with no trophy experience. Talks of how efficiently we've run the club can be rubbished. We haven't thrown the plastic around in the transfer market and we have the Highbury assets as well as astronomical ticket prices - all of course while adhering to our coveted wage scale. Yet according to the numbers, we barely broke even this past financial year. When we have access to income other clubs do not, we should be in a stronger financial position. But the looming financial fair play rules don't look so innocuous anymore. Presumably, I'm as uneasy as the Arsenal FC peanut counters.

Infrastructure aside, here's where I take issue with our transfer activities...

We splurge €12 million on Laurent Koscielny, an EPL-untested center back that had 1 good season in Ligue 1. Yet, we offer the same or less for Chris Samba & Phil Jagielka - all while Ivan Gazidis makes public announcements bragging about the money Arsene Wenger has at his disposal. On a side-note: In trying to pacify fans, he created an unforeseen monster (cheers of "Spend some money" at the season-opening away match).

And oh yea, those messy little Fabregas & Nasri sagas got drawn out into the current Premiership season. Now you've got yourself a real stew...

Without speculating on what's available to spend, our actions have weakened our negotiating platform and now we must weather the fall-out. We'll suffer through "we know what you're good for" mark-up prices, along with "Nice offer, but how do we replace the player you want?" no-sales.

With more teams figuring out how to defend against our slow building attacks, we need top-class dynamic talent capable of changing the flow of the game with moments of brilliance - much like (but preferably better than) one player we just sent away and the another that refuses to extend his contract.

These options simply aren't available in abundance this late and for the first time, that beautiful flowing football we've taken for granted is suffering. You need quality players to play quality football and WIN. The facts remain:
- We came up short last season.
- We are losing our best players.
- We are not replacing our best players with comparable or stronger players.
- Our recent contemporaries are only strengthening their squads.

Nothing in sports is guaranteed and this season's results are by no means set in stone. I just advise all Arsenal supporters to keep their delicate valuables at a safe distance while enduring the next 10 months.

Fabregas... Why We Should Be Patient

Gunners fans have every right to be impatient. Every year there's an overwhelming feeling of being taken up a hill (only to find another hill in our path). We hear from players & coaches about "winning something." We hear that there will be signings. We hear that our defensive woes will be addressed. Most recently we heard from club officials that there is a substantial amount of money in the transfer pot, yet all we've gotten is more midfield/attacking talent unproven in the Premier League. Oh yea, we also landed a 19 year old wing back who has shown the same error-prone tendencies we've struggled with during the trophy drought.

Considering all of that, it's very easy to take one look at the Fabregas-Barcelona saga and say "Just get it over with already!"  

But it's just not that simple...

We quickly forget about how the injury-prone Spaniard inherited a higher volume of matches when he accepted the role of Captain. For a stretch he was in every Arsenal line-up in a congested schedule playing through knocks and niggles. We quickly forget about how he drew and converted that penalty against Barca in the Champions League with a broken leg on passion alone.

Because...



Lately, his performances appeared fueled by resentment for the lack of quality around him. Like the teenager who begrudgingly blazes through his household chores at an amazing rate, muttering profanities under his breath directed at his parents. And with Barcelona making all the noise they can, pushing the "limits" of the tapping-up rule, all the speculation has become more of a distraction than territorial norm.

But let's consider this...

On one end of the spectrum:
- Cesc gets outclassed by his youth club on the biggest stage for 2 consecutive years
- Cesc wins the World Cup with Spain

On the other:
- Wenger promises to build a team around him, so far nobody in his class has arrived.
- He hasn't won a trophy since 2005


Spain's financial situation is no big secret. Their economy is hurting in a big way. While talk of Barcelona's debt has subsided, by no means has the debt itself done the same. So it's understandable that Barcelona have gotten creative (if not tactless) with how they package their ultimately low offers to Arsenal for the product of their youth system. But they're no business slouches either. They know how unsettled Cesc is in England. They also know that he is less valuable to the Gunners as his commitment fades. So the idea that they come to London hat-in-hand, offering €25 million still bearing the shards of their shattered piggy bank is laughable at best.

It's up to Arsenal get what Fabregas is worth. But with the transfer window closing, time is on Barcelona's side and that "joke" of an offer is gaining viability. That's why this process has taken so long. And in reality, it couldn't have happened any other way.

USA Fights Back To Draw With Mexico... At Least Klinsmann Enjoyed It

To kick off the Jurgen Klinsmann era, The Yanks scrapped their way to a draw with El Tricolor in Wednesday night's friendly at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. There's a strong emphasis on that particular verb. That's because the USMNT will rely heavily on that verb in all of its tenses if it wants to continue getting results against moderate to high level opponents (All apologies if you were expecting a blog about how we "[...]really pulled it together in the second half," or how certain players' stock rose). Here are a few harsh realities to chew on as we continue the brand-recession of US Soccer:

Yes... we're usually stronger and in better physical condition than other teams, BUT we are still generations behind the rest of the world in terms of technical ability...

After drawing level in the 2nd half, we blew half-chance after half-chance to go ahead. Be it bad spacing on our runs, poor touches, or poorly weighted passes, we simply didn't have the quality or clinical finishing to close the game out.

Yes... Break Shea is a young talent with a bright future, BUT the last time I checked, a 6'3" striker in his early twenties should be able to hold off a couple 5'8" Mexican defenders to keep position routinely...

It's called a mismatch in any sport and it should have been utilized more effectively. On the field we need to be locating weaknesses and exploiting them. Our Footballing IQ needs to improve and our style of play needs to incorporate more reconnaissance.

Yes... Kyle Beckerman has dreadlocks, as did Cobi Jones, BUT we are 4 years removed from Cobi Jones' playing days and Kyle Beckerman is ever further away from playing at his level.

Is anybody else sick and tired of seeing players with basic technical ability, no high-level experience, no stand-out physical abilities and no potential getting called into the national squad? It seems like every time the quality in MLS drops, we see Kyle Beckerman suiting up during international breaks. I implore the USSF to be more honest about the level of play in its top domestic league. MLS players need something to look forward to, but let's not sell them false hope, especially at the expense of USMNT development.

P.S. If I hear another announcer commend him for executing rudimentary elements of the game again, I'm learning German and demanding a sit-down with Jurgen Klinsmann himself... yes I know he speaks English!

Yes... Jermaine Jones plays club soccer in Europe, BUT I'm not sure what he brings to the table because he hasn't been at full strength (or at least appeared so) since joining the squad.

We finally got his paperwork taken care of and we were so excited to have him, but since he broke his leg he's looked like a shell of the man who bossed the midfield box-to-box for Shalke FC. Maybe it's just bad timing and he's still got something left in the tank. But he's not even showing the guile and creativity becoming of a 29 year old midfield virtuoso. He makes Maurice Edu look like a UPS employee with ADD.

It is worth noting that he was the player that quelled the brief scuffle between Cherundolo and Guardado. All the flyweight tough-guy shoving quickly gained perspective when Jones stepped into the ring.

The Big Picture

With Landon Donovan putting on the miles, Oguchi Onyewu crocked and Clint Dempsey looking more and more like Hugh Laurie, we need to find some stability solutions quick. We can't continue to rely on scrapping alone when our stars are unavailable. Our style of play has to be fluid & more intelligent and our personnel can't spend the first 70 minutes of every match starstruck and in awe of the other team's ability to move without the ball, string together passes and finish.

49ers Free Agency Report Card

After all the criticism for lack of movement & initiative, let's take a look at how the 49ers made out in the abbreviated free (for all) agency period ahead of the 2011 season. We'll focus on the high profile new faces and to make things a little more fun, we'll assign songs from rap great Jay-Z to match their situations.

*Fun Fact: The 49ers are set to start three (3) Top 10 picks from the 2005 draft.

WR - Braylon Edwards

Jay-Z Theme Song: "Change The Game"  feat. Roc La Familia

Bio: Drafted 3rd overall in 2005 by the Browns, Edwards held out his rookie season (sound like another big-body receiver you know?) and started behind the curve, only to play his way into becoming the first option for a fledgeling Browns franchise. He had a Pro Bowl 2007 season, only to lead the league in dropped passes in 2008. After being traded to the Jets, he performed with renewed vigor, playing out his contract and helping them to the AFC Championship Game in his final season.

Prognosis: At 28 years of age, with a 6'3" 214lb frame, the west coast offense seems like the perfect fit for Edwards. This is also the first time we've had a proven WR in the prime of his career since Terrel Owens (Yea... I said it... It had to be said). Alex Smith must be giggling himself to sleep every night knowing he has Braylon Edwards, Vernon Davis Michael Crabtree and Frank Gore on the field at the same time. The downside is if Edwards performs disproportionate to the 49ers' ambition, you better believe he won't be around longer than his 1-year/$1 million ($3.5 million with incentives) contract and we might see similar locker-room alienating antics.


Grade: A

SS - Donte Whitner

Jay-Z Theme Song: "Yes"  feat. Memphis Bleek

Bio: Drafted 8th overall in 2006 by the Bills, Whitner instantly became a cog in the Bills' defense intercepting Tom Brady in his rookie debut. While that Brady interception wasn't necesarrily a sign on things to come, he went on to record 104 tackles and sustain his productivity, playing out his contract over the next 4 seasons. After announcing he would sign with the Bengals on twitter, a phone call from Jim Harbaugh incited a change of heart as Whitner opted instead to lead a fledgeling 49ers secondary revolution.

Prognosis: At the reasonable cost of 3yrs/$11.75 million, this is a very good piece of business for the 49ers. While Whitner doesn't offer much improvement in the coverage department, he'll jump right into a starting position and fly to the ball carrier. He'll also do our defensive communication a world of good.


Grade: A-

CB - Carlos Rogers

Jay-Z Theme Song: "Squeeze First"

Bio: Drafted 9th overall in 2005 by the Redskins, Rogers played his way into a starting position. He was reliable and took the tough assignments. He's comfortable in man-to-man and put in solid performances in stand-out situations for a struggling Redskins franchise and also fully recovered from an ACL/MCL tear in 2007 to get back to top form the following season. He played out his contract and decided to test free agency.

Prognosis: The consistent knock on Rogers is his hands. He's never recorded more than two (2) interceptions in a season and has had ample opportunities to rack up more. But his ability to shut-down elite WRs makes up for his shortcomings in a big way when compared to his predecessor Nate Clements (we won't even get into the insanity behind his contract). I do however take issue with the length of Rogers' contract. He criticized the Redskins for being free agent gluttons that didn't appreciate returning studs, then signed with the 49ers for 1 year. It looks like we did all we could to get him through the door. But if we're building long-term solutions, I'd like to know we can rely on our best secondary players being around for longer than 1 year.


Grade: A-

SS - Madieu Williams

Jay-Z Theme Song: "Show Me What You Got"

Bio: Drafted 56th overall in 2004 by the Bengals, Williams impressed early and recovered from injury plagued 2nd and 4th years to pen a six year contract worth $33 million with the Vikings. Injury issues have taken their toll however, as Williams struggled to find his top form in Minnesota. With the Vikings organization less than impressed, he was released this summer after the lockout ended.

Prognosis: Madieu hasn't turned many heads at training camp, but should be a reliable back-up providing experience at the Safety position in lue of Taylor Mays' spectating (which earned him a spot on the Trade Block), coming in at the bargain basement cost of 1yr/$1 million to boot. There's very little risk attached to this deal. The only downside is Williams won't offer much in the special teams department where Taylor Mays excelled and made big plays.

Grade: C+

Any More Foot Left To Shoot?

Arsenal took on Boca Juniors in the Emirates Cup today. They jumped all over the South Americans 2-0, only to table 2 goal scoring offers within 3 minutes of each other that the visitors couldn't refuse. And quicker than I lost interest in Cowboys & Aliens (What an underachieving film! With such a cast, director and budget, this is what Hollywood gives me? For these ticket prices? But I digress), the match ended 2-2.

This is the same water-bottle-slam-inciting, violent-gesticulation-inducing behavior from the same area of the field as last season.

While it's easy to write this off as "just another preseason friendly," it's excruciatingly difficult to read play-by-play from the past few trophy-less seasons' goals-allowed history - the latter being what matters. For all the theory behind the Xs and Os to playing attractive football, it is never more than a proposed means to an end. Great players understand this... sometimes to a fault. Announcers pussyfoot around addressing it, but the shortcomings of Messi, Rooney, Ronaldo and the like are on full display on the rare occasions that they cannot produce at the level they're used to. Granted they have different coping mechanisms and usually stay professional, the fact remains that losing isn't OK.

So who could fault Nasri for balking at signing a new contract? His individual moments of brilliance inspired standing ovations... for what? Rescuing us from uninspired losses to clubs like Fulham? Fulham's ambition couldn't even keep their manager at the helm.

The classic definition of insanity is performing the same actions under the same circumstances, expecting different results.

Everybody seems to forget that this young-look team was originally labeled an "experiment." Wenger now relies on "stay-the-course" and "adherence to values" rhetoric in defense of his error-prone squad. This holds weight when it has been proven successful in the past. Sadly, the reality is that while Arsenal have stayed in the Top 4 and maintained a profitable business model, supporters are only gifted more high profile losses on the European stage to go with congested schedule excuses for sub-par domestic performances. Therefore this is still an experiment which needs to be dynamic and able to address areas of deficiency. We haven't established many values!

You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, but our tub's looking rather murky.

The Bad News: Promised changes in personnel haven't happened yet.
The Good News: The season hasn't started yet and transfer window is still open.